The NDP government and its political opponents in the B.C. legislature are about to enter a game of political chicken, and the resulting outcome could be historic.
Premier David Eby surprised many by attaching what is known as “confidence” to changes to legislation regarding DRIPA – the Declaration of Rights of Indigenous Peoples – that will soon be before the house this session.
The confidence designation means that should the proposed legislation be defeated in the legislature, Eby’s government would fall from power, thus triggering a provincial election.
The NDP has the smallest possible majority in the legislature, possessing 47 of 93 seats. It has already survived more than a half dozen confidence votes – which must be some kind of record in this province’s history – and Speaker Raj Chouhan has had to cast the deciding vote several times (also a record).
The B.C. Conservatives’ 38 MLAs say they will vote against the proposed changes because, in their view, they don’t go far enough (the party wants DRIPA repealed in its entirety), and the two B.C. Green MLAs also intend to vote against them because they don’t want any changes to DRIPA at all.
There are six independent MLAs who have voted against the NDP government in previous confidence votes, and it is possible that one or more of them may hold the key to the NDP remaining in power.
If the independent MLAs all vote against the changes, it could produce an outcome of a 46-46 tie, once again requiring the Speaker to break the tie.
However, this is where things get interesting.
Three members of the NDP caucus are indigenous and belong to First Nations that oppose any changes to DRIPA. One of them – Vancouver-Strathcona MLA Joan Phillip – is married to Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, the long-time president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs.
Phillip has been harshly critical of Eby’s proposed changes, which seek to “pause” parts of legislation that have been used by judges to strike down provincial laws or raise the possibility that private property rights could be impacted in land claim judgments until the Supreme Court of Canada can rule on the existing legislation.
Phillip has gone as far as saying he will not vote for the NDP in the next election, raising the rather intriguing scenario of him not supporting his wife in the next election should she run again.
But by attaching confidence to the legislation, Eby has signalled to his caucus members that they must back the government. However, if one or more of the First Nations MLAs even abstain from the confidence vote, the NDP will need the support of at least one of the independent MLAs to potentially remain in power, which is by no means a sure thing.
Of course, Eby’s move has also put the B.C. Conservatives in a potentially delicate spot.
That party is in the middle of a leadership race, and its next leader will not be chosen until May 30th, likely well after the confidence vote (the date of which is not known, but most likely will occur in early May).
This raises the bar for the B.C. Conservatives.
If the numbers work for them, can the party really afford to bring down the government next month?
If it did and thus trigger an election, we could see a historical rarity: a political party starting an election campaign with one leader (in this case, it would be interim B.C. Conservative leader Trevor Halford) and ending the campaign with another leader (one of the six candidates currently vying for the job).
B.C.’s provincial election campaigns are at least 28 days long, so a confidence vote that is held after May 3rd would come after the new B.C. Conservative leader is chosen.
Let the game of political chicken begin! We’ll see if anyone blinks.
Keith Baldrey is Global TV’s legislature bureau chief.
Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca
