It looks like the B.C. Conservatives are betting that when they square off against the NDP in the next provincial election, they won’t be up against the current NDP leader.
That’s right: the party thinks there is a very good chance that Premier David Eby will not be leading his party when British Columbians head to the polls again.
Interim party leader Trevor Halford recently told press gallery reporters that his caucus colleagues will not be focusing on Eby for the rest of the session and will instead direct their attention towards other cabinet ministers they think are most likely to succeed the premier should he step down.
The goal, he said, was to shift the focus away from Eby and try to damage the NDP’s “brand” among the electorate.
He then posted on X (formerly Twitter) a picture of Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon and Attorney-General Niki Sharma under the headline “Budget backlash sends NDP tumbling in new poll.”
“Those are the two most likely,” Halford later told me, adding that he thinks Health Minister Josie Osbourne could be another likely potential replacement.
Reporters had fun with both Kahlon and Sharma in the legislature hallway, showing them the pictures of them in Halford’s posting.
“I look better than that!” Kahlon joked. And they both laughed the whole thing off, saying they have a leader they support.
While it is easy to dismiss the Conservatives’ tactical shift as being premature (to say the least), there is no doubt a combination of issues has dented Eby’s popularity among voters.
Continuing closures of emergency and obstetrics wards in hospitals, uncertainty and confusion over First Nations’ land claims, and never-ending worries about the cost of living can make the electorate cranky.
But it is the recent budget that is the gift that keeps on giving for the Conservatives. Eby and the NDP will be on the defensive for the rest of the legislative session because there are so many areas within the budget that are political minefields.
I’m picking up rumblings of discontent within the NDP caucus over the budget, but so far at least that hasn’t translated to any kind of internal revolt against Eby’s leadership.
Nevertheless, the latest poll by Innovative Research is not good news for the premier. It showed his unfavourability rating now exceeds his favourability rating.
Another interesting finding was the opinions of folks who had “read, seen or heard” something about Eby in recent weeks. A little less than half the population falls into this category, and among those people, about 42 per cent felt less favourable about Eby, while just 27 per cent felt more favourable about him.
In terms of unpopularity, this year’s budget matches the HST budget from the last Gordon Campbell-led B.C. Liberal government and the so-called “restraint” budget from the Bill Bennett-led Social Credit government in 1983.
In those two earlier examples, the budgets ended up forcing both Bennett and Campbell to step down before facing the voters again.
The B.C. Conservatives clearly think history may repeat itself in this instance. Indeed, the next few months will be of vital importance to Eby and his party if they hope to secure a fourth term in government.
Rocky times lie ahead. There is little good news awaiting the NDP on the horizon (although budget revenues will likely be improved by the rising price of natural gas due to the U.S. war with Iran).
If Eby’s own personal numbers continue to decline, the B.C. Conservatives’ decision to treat him like a dead man walking may pay off. But if he can rebound in popularity, what looks like a smart bet right now may come back to haunt the Official Opposition.
Keith Baldrey is Global TV’s legislature bureau chief.
Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca
