On paper, at least, the next B.C. provincial election and the next federal election are scheduled to occur several years from now, but some unique circumstances coming into view may cause an earlier vote at one or both levels.
In this province, the NDP government continues to hang onto a razor-thin one-seat majority in the legislature, and there have been times in the past year when that tiny majority looked somewhat precarious.
The government survived a record eight confidence votes and won several of them only because Speaker Raj Chouhan voted to break a 46-46 tied vote (the Speaker votes in favour of the government, although that is sometimes disputed).
If the governing party loses a confidence vote, it “falls” from power and, in most circumstances, triggers an election. In most parliamentary sessions, the confidence votes are usually on the Throne Speech and the budget implementation bill.
However, the NDP government “attached” confidence to several pieces of legislation last year, exposing itself to possible defeat.
Could this happen again when the House resumes sitting next week for the spring session? It is entirely possible, thus once again raising the possibility of a government being defeated.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the forthcoming legislation that amends DRIPA or the Declaration Act that implements the policy. Will Premier David Eby “attach” confidence to them, effectively daring the Opposition to defeat him and his government?
This is where things may get very interesting, primarily because the B.C. Conservatives are amid a prolonged leadership race that is not scheduled to end until after the spring legislative session.
A snap election would catch them when tensions are growing between the various candidates’ camps and when the party has been having fundraising problems. An election call could expose those internal differences that have been simmering below the surface (and sometimes spilling over into public view in spectacular fashion) since the 2024 election.
Now let’s examine the federal situation.
Prime Minister Mark Carney remains one seat short of a majority. However, recent polling shows his party has opened a several-point lead over the Conservatives, perhaps due to the plaudits he received for his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Then there is the fact that last week, Pierre Poilievre was affirmed as the leader of the federal Conservative Party because of his 87 per cent approval vote at the party convention.
The federal Liberal Party is no doubt somewhat gleeful about that result. That is because Poilievre’s own popularity continues to erode with key voters.
A recent poll by Abacus Data (which has a high reputation for accuracy) showed Poilievre’s negative approval rating had climbed five percentage points over the firm’s poll a month earlier, and his positive numbers had declined four points.
Broken down by demographics, Poilievre appears to be particularly disliked by voters over the age of 60 (a demographic that has the highest voting turnout), suburban voters (who live where most of the ridings are located) and women voters.
The Abacus poll showed his only “net positive” ratings are among people aged 18-29, as well as residents of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Findings like these must make Liberal Party strategists salivate and must make things very tempting to take advantage of and call an election to obtain a majority government that now looks in sight.
David Eby and Mark Carney: two leaders who now find themselves in situations that may prove too tempting to pass up.
From my vantage point, a federal election seems more probable than a B.C. election, but given all the wild cards at play in this province – a tiny government majority, a political opponent potentially in disarray and distracted and the notion that overall things may get worse than better – nothing is off the table.
Keith Baldrey is the legislature bureau chief for Global TV.
