Last weekend’s municipal election results likely sent a shudder or two down the spines of the NDP campaign strategists.
That is because there were a lot of “change” elections around the province, and if the looming provincial election this Saturday is another “change” election, that potentially does not bode well for the incumbent NDP government.
Across B.C. – from Vancouver and Surrey to Prince George and Kamloops – incumbent mayors and councillors were ousted from their positions. Is a similar fate awaiting the NDP, which has been trailing in the polls since the campaign began?
The NDP certainly has little room for error if it wants to form government again.
In the 2024 election, the party won nine seats where the margin of victory was less than five percentage points. That’s not a lot of wiggle room.
The B.C. Conservatives also won some very tight races (11 ridings where the margin of victory was less than five points), so if the kick-the-incumbent-out mentality takes hold, they may have reason to be nervous as well.
But most voters cast their ballots with the sitting government on their minds, not necessarily the local candidates.
The NDP also must be concerned about the B.C. Green Party eating into its vote.
B.C. Green Party Emily Lowan, a virtual unknown, earned largely positive reviews for her performance in last week’s televised leaders’ debate. She came across as a feisty young woman not in the least bit intimidated by either NDP leader David Eby or B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson.
Who knows, but her performance may have given Pete Fry, himself a Green candidate, a bit of a boost that helped him capture the mayor’s job in Vancouver. And the Greens elected other candidates to city council.
As I have noted here before, the Greens don’t need to have any of their candidates win a seat to have an impact on who forms government.
In 2024, for example, the B.C. Conservatives won 11 seats where the Green vote was larger than the Conservatives’ margin of victory. If one subscribes to the theory that a Green voter more often comes from the NDP side of the political spectrum, then ridings like Columbia River-Revelstoke, Kelowna Centre and Boundary-Similkameen would have been won by the NDP in 2024 if the Greens had not fielded candidates in them.
A key part of the NDP’s messaging in the campaign’s final week focused on how a vote for the Greens could elect a right-wing, anti-science party into government. The Greens are fielding 73 candidates in the election, and while two at most stand a chance of being elected, they could be the key to victory for the B.C. Conservatives.
Eby must be kicking himself for calling this snap election. As the campaign nears its end, his party faces two threats: what appears to be a growing desire for change among elected leaders, and an upstart party that may steal enough of its votes to ensure its defeat.
Keith Baldrey is Global BC’s legislature bureau chief.
Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca
