A recent poll by Leger shows the B.C. Conservatives are still enjoying a narrow lead in support among decided voters, but it would be a mistake to attribute that to the party’s choice of Kerry-Lynn Findlay as its leader.
Rather, the fact the NDP is trailing in public opinion is more attributable to the NDP government’s stumbling and bumbling performance in the recently concluded spring session of the legislature.
Almost half the population don’t even know who Findlay is, but pretty much the entire electorate is aware of Premier David Eby, and for now, anyway, he’s struggling to stay afloat.
The other reason for the B.C. Conservatives’ impressive poll showings (Leger gives them a four-point lead and a recent Angus Reid poll puts that gap at 10 points) is their performance during that same legislative session.
While the Conservative caucus blindly groped their way through their first session (for the vast majority of these MLAs, their first ever) last year, this year was different.
With a year’s experience under their belts, the Conservative MLAs were more confident and more effective in prosecuting the NDP government and holding it to account on a number of issues.
A key part of the party’s success was the performance of interim leader Trevor Halford, who seemed to be a calming influence over a caucus that found itself distracted and unsettled by the events that forced former leader John Rustad to resign.
Halford quickly restored focus and stability to an otherwise chaotic mess. As a result, his team was quickly able to put the government on the defensive in the legislature.
Of course, they were given a lot of help by the NDP government itself.
The biggest gaffe on the government side was the whole spectacle over the DRIPA legislation, and whether it would be amended in the wake of key court decisions that have caused confusion over the protection of private property, and the validity of some provincial laws.
The Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, and accompanying legislation, became political footballs. Eby performed more backflips than an Olympic gymnast in his handling of the file.
If I was handing out letter grades for each party’s performance in the spring session, I’d give the B.C. Conservatives a B, the NDP a C and the Greens a C as well.
The Greens, as the third party in the house and with just two MLAs, struggled to establish relevance in a legislature chamber that can become the staging area for political bloodsport.
But the session is now over, and the NDP can use the summer to lick its wounds and figure out how to fix some things. The party is still very much in the game (trailing your chief political opponent by just four percentage points is hardly a disaster).
The NDP won 32 ridings by comfortable margins in the 2024 election, and there is no reason to think it won’t hold those seats come the next vote. The next election will likely come down to a dozen or so ridings, as was the case two years ago.
And the B.C. Conservatives may have hit their high-water mark.
That is because their new leader is an untested entity. Whether Findlay becomes a saviour or a liability with the voting public is a big question looming over the B.C. Conservatives.
The next few months will be key in answering that question.
Keith Baldrey is Global BC’s legislature bureau chief.
