A lot of people in the senior levels of the NDP government seem to think their best chance of winning the next election would be the emergence of a so-called “center right” party as an alternative to the increasingly right-wing B.C. Conservative Party.
But, while such a scenario would indeed likely greatly benefit the NDP in the short term, we are a long way from actually seeing such a party materialize in any significant way.
Sure, there is a party called Centre B.C. registered with Elections BC, but so far there is little evidence that many voters even know it exists (the latest Research Co. poll pegged its support in the low single digits).
Of course, if some current B.C. Conservative MLAs opt to leave their caucus over philosophical differences with new party leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay and sit as Centre B.C. MLAs (or even as Independents), that could change things.
But while there appears to be at least a half dozen members of the current caucus who may be uncomfortable with Findlay as leader, there are no signs any of them are going to bolt.
At least not yet.
B.C. political history, however, shows that a center-right “free enterprise coalition” political party has a tremendous record of electoral success.
In the 11 provincial elections from 1975 to 2017, the party (first called the Social Credit Party and then re-emerging in the 1990s as the B.C. Liberal Party) won the most votes of any party 10 times.
That is a success rate of an astonishing 91 per cent (in two of those elections the party won the most votes but failed to win a majority of seats).
The first “coalition” party was called Coalition, and it won two elections in the 1940s. Then visionary MLA W.A.C. Bennett took over the fledgling Social Credit Party in the early 1950s and won six straight majority governments by effectively hiving off about a third to a half of traditional Liberal voters with his coalition approach.
His son, Bill Bennett, rebuilt the free enterprise in time for the 1975 election. He convinced three Liberal MLAs – Pat McGeer, Garde Gardom and Allan Williams – and one Conservative MLA – Hugh Curtis – to cross the floor and join the Socreds.
Thus, the second Social Credit dynasty was born. It ultimately fell apart when Bennett’s successor as party leader, Bill Vander Zalm, allowed social conservatism to dictate party policy.
It remains an open question whether Findlay follows Vander Zalm’s approach.
The most recent Research Co. poll found that almost half the voters (47 per cent) want to see a new centre-right party as an alternative to the too-right-wing B.C. Conservatives and the too-left-wing NDP.
That suggests a lot of people consider themselves to be “politically homeless” right now.
But talking about creating an alternative to the two major parties is one thing. Accomplishing such a task is quite another.
Time, money, a well-known leader and elected representation would be part of any successful recipe for success.
And, as of now, none of those ingredients exist.
The political homeless may have to wait a while to come in from the wilderness.
And if the NDP want to remain in power come the next election, it will have to do it the old-fashioned way: by reconnecting with lost or alienated voters and not banking on a dream scenario of a centre-right party coming out of nowhere.
Keith Baldrey is Global BC’s legislature bureau chief.
